Welcome to Our Blog

Over the last year the investment team have delivered strong risk-adjusted returns during a period of considerable uncertainty and market volatility.

In Nothing Is More Powerful Than An Idea Whose Time Has Come, published in November, we introduced the idea of a Great Rotation across US equity markets. As shown in the chart below, this rotation is playing out in textbook fashion with value stocks outperforming growth by about 20% since the end of last year.

The Fed’s dual mandate is price stability and maximum employment, but Jerome Powell has been unequivocal that it’s all about the latter. 

This is the first blog since the holiday break. Whilst travel restrictions meant it wasn’t the holiday that had been planned, we adapted, and enjoyed the opportunity to spend some time together as a family and reflect on the last few months.

In its latest economic outlook, the OECD increased its expectations for global GDP.

Markets are ebullient, and they have every reason to be.

Following on from last week’s blog, the dramatic rotation from growth to value remains in place for now. Early signs of quick snapback into the prior channel have not yet materialised and instead the ratio has consolidated and even shown signs of moving.

On Monday afternoon, global stock markets soared on the news BioNTech and Pfizer had created a coronavirus vaccine which proved 90% effective based on initial trial results.

The narrative, heading into the US election, was a ‘Blue Wave’ victory for the Democrats. Polls and betting odds favoured a Biden win and a Senate majority and investors positioned accordingly.

The ACUMEN Portfolios continued their strong run throughout October, largely outperforming the market composite benchmark and IA sectors (used for peer group comparison purposes) which lost ground across the board.

With the US election just 8 days away, financial markets are following the polls and pricing in a Biden win. The prospect for a Democratic clean sweep has contributed to the rising ‘Blue Wave’ narrative benefiting those companies that stand to benefit from Democratic party policy. 

On Tuesday Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, made a speech at the National Association for Business Economics, during which he implied the government should err on the side of caution and provide too much stimulus rather than too little. 

Our Chief Investment Officer, John Leiper, was recently invited to provide his valuable insights as part of ETF Stream’s video conference livestream: “Beyond Beta Europe Digital: Smart beta unwrapped”.

Saturday Night Live has a reputation for expertly parodying presidential election debates. My all-time favourite is Al Gore (Darrell Hammond) versus George Bush (Will Ferrell) and this year didn’t disappoint with expert performances from Donald Trump (Alec Baldwin) and Joe Biden (Jim Carrey).

Our Chief Investment Officer, John Leiper, was recently invited to provide his valuable insights into emerging markets as part of ETF Stream’s video conference livestream: “Big Call: Emerging Markets”.

Last week the FTSE Russell decided to include Chinese government bonds in its flagship World Government Bond Index (WGBI). The decision follows similar moves, from JP Morgan and Bloomberg, and a failed attempt to do so just one year prior which resulted in a number of reforms, to increase accessibility and currency trading options, that ultimately paved the way for benchmark admission.

The following is an abbreviated version of my recent article ‘A Deep Dive Into… UK Equities’ for Investment Week magazine. Follow the link and read my views on page 17.

In last week’s blog we discussed the ‘Nasdaq whale’, Softbank, and the role it played, alongside an army of retail investors, driving tech prices ever higher prior to the recent correction. These short-term ‘technical’ flows are driven by the options market as traders look to hedge their underlying exposure, amplifying moves both lower and higher.

In a speech for the history books, last week Fed chairman Jerome Powell announced a significant change to the way it conducts monetary policy by formally announcing ‘average inflation targeting’.

Despite the fact the coronavirus has plunged many countries into recession, global equity markets are now back at all-time highs, as measured by the Bloomberg World Exchange Market Capitalisation index.

In The Return Of Inflation (5th June 2020) we made the case for a transition from the existing deflationary narrative to one in which markets start to price-in inflation.

Having identified, and benefited from, the 7% fall in the value of the US dollar index since late April, we have now turned tactically cautious.

The US dollar index, which represents the value of the dollar against a basket of developed market peers, fell through key technical support to its lowest level in 2 years.

There are growing signs that the US dollar may finally roll over.

The 10 year US Treasury yield has remained remarkably steady over the last few months, particularly as inflation expectations have gradually risen.

Those stocks that outperformed during the corona crisis are the same ‘winners’ that outperformed before the crisis.

The recovery in US equity prices, from the corona crisis, has been one of the most rapid in history.

China’s economy has transitioned, from an industrial export-led model, towards services.

Commodities are nothing if not cyclical. They rise and fall in value with remarkable consistency over time.

Quantitative easing, or QE, is where a central bank creates money to buy bonds. The goal is to keep interest rates low and to stimulate the economy during periods of economic stress.

In January 2019 Jerome Powell pivoted from a policy of interest rate increases and balance sheet cuts to interest rate cuts and, later that year, balance sheet expansion.

Over the last decade, the Fed has increasingly resorted to unconventional monetary policy, such as quantitative easing, or QE, to stimulate the economy.

In response to the corona crisis, global central banks have unleashed a tidal wave of liquidity.

Tavistock Wealth is the investment management arm of Tavistock Investments Plc. The investment team is comprised of 7 highly educated and talented professionals.

One question I get from advisers and clients, more than any other, is why global equity markets have bounced back so far.

In the early stages of the Corona Crisis of 2020, the global economy faced a liquidity crisis.

In an unprecedented day in the history of oil trading the price of the front month contract for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil fell below zero to -$37.63.