Geopolitical Change and Asset Class Rotation
Christopher Peel - Chief Investment Officer2017 is shaping up to be a year of momentous geopolitical change, especially in the United States and in the United Kingdom.
Democracies on both sides of the Atlantic have voted in favour of a shift towards nationalism, protectionism and the pursuit of greater sovereignty. It is far too early to predict the long-term market implications of these surprising political events. Investors will need to rely on strong risk management, portfolio diversification and patience during periods of heightened volatility.
The vocal minority in the US and many of the world’s political leaders may not like his policies, but Middle America swept him to victory and these voters are getting exactly what was promised. The Trump rally in the US equity markets is not surprising given his radical views on existing trade relationships, infrastructure spending and border controls. In time, US based manufacturing companies will regain the market share lost during the last quarter century, especially at the expense of bordering countries such as Canada and Mexico.
The government will eventually negotiate separate trade agreements with countries such as the US, China, and Australia. The UK is in a strong negotiating position to retain most of its current trade flow with the EU, given that it purchases more goods than it sells to the continent. These new trading relationships will ultimately lead to a strong recovery in sterling and a more balanced economy, which is already the strongest within the G7 countries.
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