US Election Update - Déjà Vu - TREXITChristopher Peel - Chief Investment Officer
Anti-establishment candidate Donald Trump has defied the odds and won the US Presidential election. The opinion polls were wrong yet again, and the silent majority that populates middle America has voted for sweeping changes to the heart of the political system. The billionaire, celebrity businessman has no previous political experience and has pledged to “make America great again”. The acrimonious leadership contest has divided the nation and it will take time to heal the wounds suffered during the bruising campaign. The Republican Party also gained control of both the House of Representatives and Senate, which in time will consolidate even more power under the control of the 45th President of the United States.
The response in markets this morning has been predictably emotional, but the period of heightened volatility and uncertainty will probably be short-lived. Equity markets have opened lower, the US dollar has fallen, US government bonds have rallied and the price of gold has risen. These are the same types of movements that followed the Brexit vote, and history suggests that the underlying economic fundamentals will reassert themselves within a few days.
Donald Trump has executed a “coup d’état” within the Republican Party and in the process, has won the trust and support of most of those that voted. His campaign was designed to win the election and this has been accomplished in extraordinary fashion.
Looking ahead, his focus will shift to reconciliation and the appointment of his advisory cabinet. Investors will have much to ponder in advance of Inauguration Day on the 20th of January 2017, but the US Federal Reserve remains on course to raise interest rates in December and the US economy is likely to strengthen under the new pro-business administration. Any significant sell-off in risk assets should be viewed with caution, and investors should remain patient during this period of leadership transition.
The ongoing China-US trade war, the potential of another Fed interest rate drop and the continuation of the current bull market. Christopher Peel discusses all of this with CNBC.read more
Christopher Peel provides his views on global financial markets for the second half of the year on CNBC.read more
Welcome to the Q3-2019 ‘Quarterly Perspectives’ publication, which aims to explain our outlook for financial markets over the rest of the year.read more
Recent news events have brought to light the risk of suspended funds and the unhappiness these restrictions can cause for investors.read more
Christopher Peel discusses what’s coming next in global financial markets in a recent interview on CNBC.read more
Christopher Peel gives his views on global financial markets…read more
Welcome to the Q2-2019 ‘Quarterly Perspectives’ publication, which aims to explain our outlook for financial markets over the rest of the year.read more
Speaking to CNBC this morning, Christopher Peel covers current market views and monetary policy, along with the global risk environment and the ongoing Brexit debacle.read more
Speaking to CNBC Christopher Peel discusses the next steps for Brexit negotiations.read more
Christopher Peel gives his views on global financial markets and Tavistock Wealth’s portfolio positioning on CNBC.read more
Welcome to the Q1-2019 ‘Quarterly Perspectives’ publication, which aims to explain our outlook for financial markets over the rest of the year.read more
Christopher Peel, our Chief Investment Officer, discusses the environment in U.K. investment before Brexit deal on CNBC.read more